Why launch an impeachment proceeding against Trump now?

Democratic leaders, particularly Nancy Pelosi, have been dithering for months. Why do they decide that now is the time to try to overthrow Donald Trump?

Already at the time of the publication of the Mueller report, the calls for dismissal had begun to be heard in the Democratic ranks.

Although the Special Prosecutor did not prove collusion with Russia, he did not exclude the President on the issue of obstructing justice. For many elected Democrats, it was enough.

But not for Nancy Pelosi.

The Speaker of the House feared that the Democrats, accused harshly by the President, feel the political impact of such a procedure.

The politicians who, like her, have been sitting in Congress for a few decades, remember that the Republicans lost their feathers after having launched a dismissal procedure against Bill Clinton in 1998.

Yesterday, after a long consultation with the members of her caucus, she finally decided to dive.

First, because the pressure was growing stronger on her. More than 150 members of his caucus (counting 235) asked him to act.

And now it’s not just the most left-wing elected members of his party, who are in very Democratic constituencies where Donald Trump is unpopular. Elected representatives of purple districts (sometimes democratic blue, sometimes red republican), some of whom are former soldiers or intelligence agents, also asked him to act.

Then there is the bottom of the case. In the case of the Mueller report, the president had not been directly involved in a conspiracy.

In this case, he himself admitted to having raised with the Ukrainian president allegations of corruption related to the family of Joe Biden , a potential opponent in 2020, whose son had links with a gas company in Ukraine.

Donald Trump speaks of an irreproachable conversation which he promises to unveil the entire transcript Wednesday.

But for Nancy Pelosi, the mere fact that the subject was approached – as Mr. Trump admitted – is an abuse of presidential powers aimed at discrediting a potential political opponent.

Since supervising the White House is one of the roles of the Congress, it was difficult for the Speaker of the House to condemn the action, while ignoring the calls for dismissal launched by her colleagues.

What if Trump came out the winner?

When one looks at the current political landscape, it is hard to imagine that Donald Trump will actually be removed from office at the end of this whole process.

For impeachment to materialize, two-thirds of senators must confirm it . Currently, the Senate is controlled by Republicans. And although in politics the wind can turn, since the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump managed to coalesce his party behind him.

In the case of the Ukrainian case, apart from the Utah senator and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, very few Republicans have been indignant.

More than staying in office, Donald Trump even hopes that the case will ensure him a second term. The president, who says the procedure will be positive for him in the November 2020 election, is already talking about harassment and witch-hunting.

His campaign team has even begun to make it an election issue to mobilize his base, sending emails to raise funds, or by posting a video at the end of which one can read while the Democrats are on their own. purpose of fighting Trump, President Trump is fighting for you .

If the controversy that drove the Democratic leaders to act is not the same, the factors that pushed them to be cautious did not necessarily change. The country is still politically very divided and among the population, the idea of ​​removal is far from unanimous.

Nancy Pelosi, who has proven over the years that she knew how to persuade her colleagues behind the closed doors of Congress, now has the task of convincing the American public that the path to destitution was the right one.

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